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EconomicsΒΆ

IPO Season and the Death of Software Engineering (Again)

Our Perseids campsite at Song Kol. No cell signal, no Blind, no LinkedIn panic.

I check Blind the way some people check horoscopes: every morning, expecting drama, occasionally finding truth. The Economist I read for the opposite reason, it's calm, structured, backed by actual data. These two don't usually agree on much. But over the past couple of months, they've converged on the same narrative, and that's when I start paying attention.

December 2025: the quiet IPO prep

Most people missed the December signal. No press conference, no earnings call. Just a Schumpeter column in The Economist1 noting that SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all circling public listings. Anthropic hired Wilson Sonsini, the firm that took Google and LinkedIn public. Valuation tripled in six months to $183 billion2. Revenue reportedly went up ninefold in a year3.

What Actually Drove the Tech Layoffs

A 10-minute ride and you have such a view from Chon Aryk hills.

I truly enjoy reading Blind and Levels. There is so much internal drama, messy details, and unexpected insights that you almost do not need reality shows anymore. And if you ever feel bored, you can always drop a mildly toxic comment into a thread and watch the whole thing ignite. It fits the overall style of Blind a little too well, but that is part of the fun. And considering that mix of casual toxicity and surprisingly rational takes you see there, you would expect people to look at layoffs with a bit more perspective. But when the topic comes up, the conversation usually drifts to the same explanation. People blame AI. People say their jobs vanished because a model wrote some code. And while I understand the frustration, the logic never sits right with me. Nobody complained during the hiring boom of 2020 and 2021, when companies doubled their headcount like it was nothing. That part gets forgotten. Now that the correction is here, many want a simple villain. AI fits the story, but it does not fit the data.